Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com fame (now a blogger for The New York Times) makes predictions of possible Republican take-aways in the U.S. House.
Iowa has five seats in the U.S. House. Districts one, two and three are held by Democrats; four and five are held by Republicans. Silver lists just one Iowa district as a “takeover” chance. It’s Iowa’s third district, where incumbent Democratic Congressman Leonard Boswell of Des Moines faces Republican challenger Brad Zaun of Urbandale. Silver’s forecast: there is a 63 percent chance Boswell will lose the seat to Zaun. Silver’s analysis takes into account various ratings or forecasts of individual House races that are produced by publications and individual analysts along with any polling data that’s available. Silver’s predictions, however, appear to have been calculated before the American Future Fund polling data was released on IA3.
About O.Kay Henderson
Kay is a founding member of the Radio Iowa network newsroom. In 1994, she became the network’s news director. She’s a featured reporter and commentator on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press,” and the 2002 recipient of the Shelley Award.
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