Clinton aide, in retrospect, draws scenario for HRC win in Iowa

Former Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson told ABC Hillary Clinton would have won the 2008 Iowa Democratic Party’s Caucuses — and the party’s 2008 presidential nomination — if John Edwards’ affair had been confirmed in the media before January 3, 2008 — the night the Caucuses were held.

One fly in the ointment of that theory, however, is exit polls which suggest Clinton was not an overwhelming "second choice" for many of those who attended the Caucuses.  As you may recall, the Republic Party of Iowa conducts a straw poll at its caucuses, so the final tally is indicative of how many people who attended the Iowa GOP’s Caucuses supported which candidate.  Iowa Democrats, however, conduct a mathematical exercise.  First, a candidate must have at least 15 percent support in the Caucuse room, or they’re declared a non-viable candidate and that candidates’ supporters must choose another candidate or move to the uncommitted group.  That’s why "second choice" is so important and exit poll data suggests the Edwards supporters in Iowa were not overwhelmingly for Clinton as a second choice but would have gravitated toward Obama or decided to join the ranks of undecided voters in their precinct.     

For you who can’t find your box score at home, Obama won the Iowa Caucuses with 37.6 percent; Edwards came in second with 29.7 percent and Clinton was third with 29.5 percent.