At least two for the 4th (updated)

UPDATED @ 1:10 p.m.

The 4th of July parade in Clear Lake back in 2007 was a big deal stop on the Iowa Caucus campaign trail, as Hillary and Bill Clinton walked the route.  It was the part of the former president’s first swing through Iowa for his wife’s campaign.  Mitt Romney was there in Clear Lake, too, with his campaign RV. The Clintons and Romney had a brief, handshake-type of encounter. (Barack Obama was in Iowa, too, that day back in 2007, but in places like Pella and in central Iowa.)

Sources say at least three two 2012 Republican presidential candidates will be in the 2011 Clear Lake 4th of July parade: Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich & Ron Paul. (UPDATE: The Ron Paul campaign called to say they will have supporters walking in the parade, but the congressman won’t be there.)

McCotter: no “ardor” for the current field (audio)

The Michigan congressman who plunked down $15,000 to compete in the Iowa Republican Party’s Straw Poll in August is in Iowa, meeting privately with Republicans before appearing at a Tea Party Bus Tour event in Ottumwa this evening.  Thaddeus McCotter says he’s not yet decided, for sure, that he’s running, but during an interview with Radio Iowa this morning McCotter quipped that he’ll be “lurking about” the state for the next few weeks to gauge his chances.

Is he running?  “I’m thinking about it. We’re exploring the possibility.”

McCotter said there’s an “absence pure enthusiasm” for the candidates who have said they’re running.  ”There’s a sense in the Republican Party and amongst the Republican primary electorates or the Republican Caucus electorates that they’re still waiting to see what happens and they’re not entirely satisfied with the field,” McCotter said, mentioning the buzz about potential candidates like Palin and Perry. ”…Or are they looking for something that’s relatively new that they haven’t heard of before? So I think if you want to look at it in a kind of an interesting way, you could be very thankful that you’re not a particularly known quantity at this point in time because the ones they do know they don’t seem to particularly have an ardor for at this point in time and, again, I’m not saying that eventually if I get in that they’ll love me, either, but if you don’t ask, you’ll never know – at least that’s the approach I took with my wife when we were dating.”

Palin was accused of “stepping on” Romney’s “announcement” in New Hampshire by making an appearance in the state on the same day.  I asked McCotter if he had any qualms about “stepping on” Bachmann’s announcement today.  “I think it was purely coincidental and we sit next to each another in committees so she hasn’t said anything, so I think she understands that. And especially given my relative obscurity, which you’ve been so kind to point out, I don’t think that she’s sweating that either. In fact, I thought that her ‘announcement’ was at the debate, which I think was very well played actually and then she had something yesterday and now the formal announcement today, so I don’t think that necessarily that she would view it that way, but you’d have to ask her that. I certainly don’t intend it to be like that.”

The unsettled nature of the race is reflective of the “chaotic, uncertain times in which we live,” according to McCotter.  “In past elections, Mitt Romney would have been our heir apparent.  Republicans like to follow the tail in front of them with their trunks,” McCotter said. “…For whatever reason, he has not been able to inspire the electorate. I think that he is, in many ways, trying to play it safe, believing that he’ll be the presumptive nominee and that becomes a very iffy proposition for those that are that presumptuous.”

AUDIO: McCotter’s conversation in statehouse press room 12 min (Note emphasis on last word in that sentence)

McCotter spent a good deal of time at the end of the interview dissecting Romney, issue by issue.

McCotter, perhaps in a reference to Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, volunteered that his wife is on board with a presidential campaign. “My wife said I can do it,” McCotter said. “It just means my honey-do list at home gets a little longer.”

McCotter is being escorted around the state by two long-time GOP insiders: former House Speaker Christopher Rants of Sioux City and Mary Earnhart, a former GOP staffer in the Iowa House who was among this spring’s mass exodus of staff from Iowans for Tax Relief, where she had been policy director/chief lobbyist.

Bachmann @ the center of the dance floor (audio)

Minnesota Congresswoman/Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann is standing in the middle of the dance floor at the Electric Park Ballroom in Waterloo, Iowa, to talk to the hundreds of people who’ve shown up here on this Sunday evening.

AUDIO: Michele Bachmann – Waterloo, IA 34 min

The program started at 6:17 p.m. with a brief speech from the chairman of Black Hawk County Republicans.

“Black Hawk County is a mecca now for Republican presidential candidates,” the chair declared.

Next up, Jason Lewis, a Waterloo native who is a talk show host.  “Alright Waterloo.  Are you ready to have some fun tonight?”  he asked the crowd.  He even made a reference to local anchorman Ron Steele, getting laughter from the crowd.

The crowd erupted when Lewis predicted the first thing Bachmann would do as president would be to “repeal ObamaCare.”

When Lewis mentioned Senator Tom Harkin’s name and Harkin’s call for another stimulus bill, some in the crowd booed. “With all due respect to the senate, he may be living proof we haven’t won the war on drugs,” Lewis said. The crowd laughed and applauded.

Bachmann entered the room at 6:22 p.m.  The campaign chose a song from Katrina and the Waves — “Walking on Sunshine” — for her entrance.

“Welcome home,” she said at 6:26 p.m.  “My name is Michele Bachmann and tomorrow I am going to announce that I am running for the presidency of the United States of America.”

The crowd cheered.

“Get comfortable, we’re family…We’re going to have a wonderful time here this evening,” Bachmann said, before talking about Lewis and asking the crowd for another round of applause for Lewis.

“We’re here to have fun tonight, aren’t we?” she said, then introduced her husband to the crowd.  She called four of her children up on stage, after telling the crowd she’d just talked by phone with her son — the doctor in Connecticut.

Bachmann introduced her mother to the crowd. ”The woman who gave birth to me here at Allen Memorial Hospital,” Bachmann said.  Someone gave a wolf whistle.

“Now you know that I came by my height honestly,” she said.   She introduced her brother David, calling him up on stage.  “This is the one who is responsible for terrorizing me to no end,” Bachmann joked, then added: “Three brothers, no sisters — the best preparation for politics any girl could have.”

“…My mom and dad both graduated from East High School,” Bachmann said.  A few apparent East High graduates in the crowd cheered.

“We are very proud to be Iowans. We go back to seven generations…back to the 1850s…and literally were part of the pioneers who felled the trees” and cleared the prairie for farming.

“Everything I needed to know I learned in Iowa,” she said.  “I wanted to come to Waterloo…because this is the sensibility and this is where it all began.  Tomorrow I’m going to speak to the nation, but…I wanted to speak to you first.”

Bachmann talked, as she has before, about taking the “voice” of Iowa and the heartland to Washington.  Then she shared a few memories of her childhood in Waterloo and Cedar Falls.

“My mom told me the day that I was born she was out planting tulips in the yard,” Bachmann said.  Her dad was at the State Teachers College that day.

“We were Democrats at that time,” Bachmann said, then she gave a shout-out to any Democrats in the room.  “We’re glad you’re here at the Electric Park Ballroom tonight.”

She sketched her humbled beginnings, including how she relished mayo and lettuce sandwiches.

“When I was growing up, the highlight of the year was going to the Cattle Congress,” Bachman said, getting a “yeah” from many in the crowd. “…This was kind of the center of our universe.”

Bachmann told the crowd of her visit to First Lutheran this morning.  “Wouldn’t you know, I ran into one of (her mother’s) classmates from high school.”  (Janice and her husband are now standing, listening to Bachmann’s speech, still in the booth area just off the dance floor where Bachmann is standing.

“I want you to know how grateful I am…for this wonderful, decent, God-fearing community…This was such a fine community to be born in…to be a part of.  I’m just thrilled with pride when I think of what Waterloo put in our family and all of us…This is what we need more of.  We need more Waterloo.  We need more Iowa.  We need more closeness, more families…to take that idea that is America, that was formed here.  It’s not too late.  I want you to be encouraged.  Sometimes when you look at the numbers out there…and you hear about all the bad news…I want you to know it is not too late. We can turn it around. America can be better.  We will be better.”

The crowd applauded.

“Iowa gets to choose.  Think of that awesome responsibilty and I have a suggestion for you,” Bachmann said.

Someone in the crowd shouted: “You go girl.”

Bachmann then made a strong sale to get the crowd to go to the Straw Poll in Ames.  “That’s not a small deal.  That’s a big deal,” she said.

She then went back to the story about her family moving north, to Minnesota which she said “would put fear in the heart of any Iowan.”

She recounted her conversation with her mother when she was told about the move. “But we’ve never even been to Des Moines to see the state capitol.  How can we leave now?” Bachmann told the crowd she had told her mother. “The tears did not dissuade my mother…but in my heart, this was home.”

The crowd’s largest response of the night came next.  “I don’t have a teleprompter.  I don’t know if you’ve noticed that up here. President Bachmann may be retiring that thing,” Bachmann said, before adding a dig at the current “Teleprompter-in-Chief.”

She wound down by talking about the most famous folks from Waterloo, the Sullivan Brothers.

“This is our time.  This is our year….We’re going to take…the sensibilities of this land…and in 2012 Barack Obama will be a one term president,” she said in conclusion, drawing out the words “one term president” as the crowd chanted along.

“American Girl” is playing as Bachmann exits.  It’s 6:50 p.m.  Event over.

Shortly before her appearance, the Rolling Stones were piped through the venue’s sound system.  The lyric of, “you’d make a grown man cry,” seems appropriate for many in the crowd who’ve told me they want to see Barack Obama be a one-term president.

I walked around for a while and talked with the crowd, but could find no one who went to elementary school with Bachmann. I did find a woman who went to school with Bachmann’s mother.  I’m off to talk with the crowd and get their impressions of Bachmann’s speech.

Bachmann’s “formal” announcement speech will be delivered tomorrow morning in Waterloo at The Snowden House.

Bachmann people

I’m sitting in a booth at the Electric Park Ballroom in Waterloo, listening to Elvis sing “A Little Less Convesation” over the sound system along with the murmur of people entering the hall for a glimpse of Michele Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who’s running for president.

George and Janice Christian are sitting about four booths to the east of me.  Janice went to school with Bachmann’s mother and knew the Bachmann family when they lived in the area.  The Christians saw Bachmann this morning at the First Lutheran Church in Waterloo.

“We were just closing up, so she came in and looked around, because she was baptized there,” Janice Christian said.   “She said, ‘Be sure and come out and see my mother.’”

The couple doesn’t remember Michele as a child, but they’ve followed her political career lately.

“We’ve never been to anything like this before, so we just thought we’d come out and see what it was,” Janice said.

The two are not regular Caucus-goers, but they may attend in 2012.

“I’m just a regular voter,” George Christian said, “for the right party.”

The place is filling up fast.  Gary and Karen DeVries of Parkersburg have no connection to the Bachmann family.  They arrived early, securing chairs that are about 20 yards from the microphone Bachmann will use to speak to the crowd.

“We’re here to see what she says and we’ve been watching her on television,” Karen DeVries says.

“I like what I hear her saying, the passion that she’s got and she’s a strong conservative,” Gary DeVries says.  “…I think she’s got some good ideas to get out there and fix the economy and fix the tax system and get the country back on track, so we’re here to get a close-up look at her.”

Chuck Laudner, former executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, is here as an observer.  “I am solidly neutral,” he says. (Laudner was party ED during the 2007 Iowa GOP Straw Poll and a former chief of staff to Bachmann BFF/Congressman Steve King.)

“I go to every tent in the circus,” Laudner says of his presence here. “Huck at the Surf, I had to go see that.”  Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee played a gig at historic Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake in October of 2007.

I don’t believe Bachmann will be playing a musical instrument.  There’s a riser in the middle of the ballroom floor.  After an announcement from a Black Hawk County Republican, urging the crowd to stand on the hardwood if they want a glimpse of the candidate, people have started streaming into the center of the venue — rushing the stage, but in an orderly manner.

It’s less than half an hour ’til show time.  I’ll be back with another post soon.

Gingrich sees “a terrible muddle” on gay marriage (AUDIO)

During a Q&A session with reporters in Indianola, Iowa, late this morning, Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich was asked about last night’s vote in New York on gay marriage.  Gingrich began his answer with a reference to gay marriage in Iowa.  A 2009 Iowa Supreme Court ruling essentially legalized gay marriage in Iowa.  And Gingrich donated to the 2010 effort to vote three of the seven justices on the Iowa Supreme Court off the bench.

Gingrich:  ”Iowa was a very different case from New York.  I mean, Iowa was seven judges deciding that they would arbitrarily overturn the laws and the culture of the state of Iowa which is fundamentally different. I mean New York at least, whether you agree or disagree with the outcome, it is in the elected process and it is in the legislature and it is with the govenror and that’s the right venue.

“I helped sponsor the Defense of Marriage Act which basically doesn’t transfer automatically to all 50 states. I think the president should be, frankly, enforcing that act and I think we are drifting towards a terrible muddle which I think is going to be very, very difficult and painful to work our way out of.

“I believe that marriage is between a man and a woman. I think that’s what marriage ought to be and I would like to find ways to defend that view as legitimately and effectively as possible.”

AUDIO: Gingrich on gay marriage 1 min

Gingrich 2012 a “Tea Party kind of story” (audio)

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich stood in a room at the Pizza Ranch in Indianola this morning as the main speaker at a Tea Party bus tour event.  A Tea Party organizer asked Gingrich about his recent campaign melt-down, and Gingrich began by calling it “a Tea Party kind of story.”

“I had a fundamental disagreement with consultants,” Gingrich said.   Gingrich explained his vision for the campaign. ”I’m willing to gamble and our campaign is going to survive and I’m going to be in it all the way and I believe I can win it…because people want substance more than baloney.”

AUDIO: Gingrich’s full answer 2:20

Gingrich later went on the Tea Party bus and answered questions from the media.  Kathie Obradovich asked Gingrich why he found himself surrounded by people who did not share his vision for the campaign, and how would he avoid the same mistake if he’s elected president.

“Well, as you can imagine, it was a very painful experience and it taught me a lesson that surprises me a little bit, but which I will apply to personnel as the president. My vision of where we’re going and the lessons I think I’ve learned from history is really very different from most Republican consultants and I didn’t realize how profoundly different,” Gingrich said.

I followed up by asking: “You considered running last time around, so you had four years — presumably — to think about the kind of campaign you wanted to run. Why, out of the gate, didn’t you have that firmly in place?”

Gingrich replied: “Because I thought it was much easier to translate what I did here today in a way that would be effective and it turned out that, think about it — these are very smart people who made a very good living doing something they’re good at and they were eager to do what they’re good at. What they’re good at didn’t happen to be where I think America has to go and it was a real revelation to me. This is going to be true across the board. I mean, this means that whether you’re trying to reform the defense department or you’re trying to reform unemployment compensation or you’re trying to reform the Federal Reserve , it’s going to be much more challenging to find people who both agree with the goal and have the technical knowledge and experience to do it and have the will power to get it done because obviously there’s…going to be enormous opposition to the level of change that I’m suggesting.”

AUDIO: Two questions and Gingrich’s answers 6 min

Gingrich told the Tea Party crowd he is the kind of leader who “will cooperate, but…not compromise” because Gingrich said people think a compromiser is a “sell out.”  In answers to reporters’ questions, Gingrich said his campaign “took some hits” but has “every opportunity to be competitive.”  Gingrich said his “bolder, clearer” approach would help him do well in Iowa’s Caucuses.

Palin “doc” man talks about the film

I had a conversation this afternoon with Stephen Bannon, the writer and director of “The Undefeated” — a documentary about former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  The film will premiere this coming Tuesday, June 28 at the Pella Opera House.

“I had a concept about how to tell her story,” Bannon said. “It’s an amazing story of, really, modern America and the kind of difficulty of the middle class and the working class to make an impact on the world. And that story was hiding in plain sight and the mainstream media and even most of the conservative media had not picked up on the story. They really picked up on Governor Palin when she came to the Republican convention and hadn’t really looked at the backstory.”

I followed up with this question: When you see filmgoers leaving the Pella Opera House, what are you hoping? That they’re inspired to vote for her? What’s the goal of the film?

“The goal is very simple,” Bannon said. “Number one is, you know, AMC Theaters which is the second-largest theater chain in the country and Cinedigm which is the largest digital distribution company in the country, and ARC Entertainment — those are Hollywood capitalists. I mean, they’re not conservative companies by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, the executives there watch more MSNBC than they do the conservative channels.  They see it as a story that transcends politics.  I mean, it’s really a story about people that are out there — when this story starts off, Sarah Palin is working on a little commercial fishing boat she co-owns with her husband who’s a blue collar foreman up on the North Slope.  Her dad’s a school teacher. He doesn’t make a lot of money. The family’s never made a lot of money. She’s married to a blue collar guy. She’s not part of any social or cultural or political elite.  Even in the frontier like Alaska, we lay out Alaska for the frontier it is, she’s not part of that elite. In fact, she’s as out of the loop as anybody in modern America and it shows you over 20 years really beginning at a town council level what one has to do to take on the vested interests.”

Palin “doc” to be shown in Iowa

Craig Robinson at The Iowa Republican is reporting the documentary about Sarah Palin will be shown in Iowa next week.  Robinson says an announcement will be made later this morning with all the details. Politico’s Ben Smith reports Palin has been invited to the event.

Real estate in Ames starting at $15,000

bachmannjuly17-006 Texas Congressman/Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul won the bidding today for the prime piece of real estate just outside Hilton Coliseum in Ames for the Iowa GOP’s Straw Poll in August.  The party auctioned off spots today (in private), with a starting bid of $15,000.   The Ron Paul campaign sent out a press release announcing Paul had placed the highest bid, but did not disclosure the dollar amount. (The Register reports $31,000.)

According to sources, candidates Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and the aforementioned Ron Paul all had folks in the room to place bids.  Another person in the room was there for Congressman Thaddeus McCotter. a Michigan Republican who has indicated he may run for the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination.  Today is the one and only day campaigns may buy Straw Poll party spots from the Grand Old Party in Iowa.

Campaigns of the past have staged concerts on their reserved spots on the grassy property outside Hilton Coliseum, although Crystal Gayle’s rendition of “Don’t It Make Your Brown Eyes Blue” at Lamar Alexander’s party set-up was perhaps an omen for Alexander’s 1999 Straw Poll performance. (Alexander dropped out of the race after a poor Straw Poll showing.)

Most campaigns have served food from their rented plots in Ames, although I remember only a keg of beer at Dan Quayle’s tent and a crew of ISU students who belonged to the same fraternity as Quayle enjoying the brew.

Steve Forbes has held the title of most extravagant Straw Poll party.  Forbes folks hosted a sit-down meal in an air-conditioned tent with a playground nearby for the kiddies.

Motorcycle entourages have also been a feature of the past, as both Morry Taylor and Pat Buchanan rolled into the parking lots outside Hilton Coliseum with a cavalcade of Harleys and other motorized bikes.

During last weekend’s edition of “Iowa Press” I asked Iowa GOP chairman Matt Strawn about the Straw Poll.

Henderson: Mr. Strawn, not far down the path your party will host a straw poll in Ames in August whereby republican presidential candidates will see a first test, so to speak, in the first caucus state.  There are critics of that straw poll.  They say you are fleecing the candidates by renting out the space, requiring an entry fee and also that this, in essence, gives Iowa two opportunities to have a first test in the campaign.  How do you handle that criticism?

Strawn: Well, I think a lot of those critics come from outside our border, people that are jealous that their state doesn’t have the first-in-the-nation status that Iowa does and I think some of those critics also don’t want to see Iowa republicans successful with our fundraising efforts.  But it is a great time to be an Iowa republican.   May marked the 27th consecutive month that Iowa republicans have gained on Iowa democrats in voter registration.  Since Barack Obama was inaugurated President more than 65,000 Iowans have left the ranks of registered Iowa democrats, that is over ten percent of their membership and I think we’re going to see that enthusiasm continue at the straw poll and I think it’s a great organizing tool not just for those presidential candidates to get a test of their organization but the fact that Iowa is one of eight states that will determine the presidency in November because it is a true swing state having a successful straw poll will help us organize for that.

Henderson: But you said it’s a successful fundraiser for the party.  You’re essentially raising funds from candidates who in the general election may be facing off against a President who has a billion dollar war chest.  Is that wise for your party to be siphoning off that money for the republican party of Iowa when it could go for those candidates farther on down the road?

Strawn: Well, actually every candidate makes a resource decision in every campaign.  It is extremely costly and expensive to advertise in the Boston media market to reach New Hampshire voters.  So, each individual candidate has to decide are they going to pay for expensive ads in Boston or are they going to pay for a $30- straw poll ticket in Ames?  I would suggest Mike Huckabee is a perfect example of how you get a tremendous return on your investment without investing a significant amount of resources.  If you as a candidate have a message that is connected with Iowa voters, they will vote for you in the straw poll and I have the perfect example.  I was in Clayton County last night up in Garnavillo, about as far as you can get from Ames, and people up there were talking about how excited they were to come to the straw poll and they haven’t even decided which candidate they’re going to support yet.  So, this notion that campaigns have to buy those tickets when individual Iowa republicans are excited to spend their own $30 to hear from the candidates I think really goes against that national narrative that hasn’t proven accurate.

Henderson: Ms. Dvorsky, the Iowa Democratic Party doesn’t face this criticism because you don’t have a straw poll in advance of the caucuses.  Why did you make that decision?

Dvorsky: Because we don’t fundraise off of people’s ability to vote whether it is in a vote that is an actual part of the electoral process, that’s just not how we fundraise.  What we do for organizing purposes, and of course Matt is right that that’s an organizational tool, we organize sort of the old fashioned way, we go out there and knock it.  So, the voter registration piece, we still have a 35,000 voter registration edge, that is not what’s going on with the straw poll.  The republican core of caucus goers is going to, you know, they will determine what that is but at the end of the day Matt is right about one thing, this will start here and it will also end here and when those, whoever that eventual nominee is, is going to have to come back here and they’re going to have to answer …

Borg: Isn’t that the very question, though, Mr. Strawn, playing off Kay’s question here — you said that this is a time to, for voters to be able to meet candidates and so on.  Mitt Romney isn’t even going to be in the straw poll and yet this is a major winnowing of candidates function.  How relevant can the straw poll be if one of the major candidates isn’t even participating?

Strawn: Well, that ultimate decision is going to be made by the voters.  It isn’t for the chairman of the party, who has to remain neutral in the process, to assess the wisdom of different candidate decisions.  One thing we do know given a very fluid field here in Iowa there are a lot of campaigns that need to test their organization to see how their message is resonating with Iowans and I have great confidence that the straw poll is going to be a tremendous success, not just from the benefit of the republican party of Iowa but for those candidates and for those Iowans that are looking for new leadership.  I mean, at the end of the day when you have an incumbent president it is going to be a referendum on the failed leadership of Barack Obama.  And part of that process of getting Iowa’s six electoral votes for the republican nominee starts with a successful straw poll that helps our party organize here in Iowa

Cain @ Strong America Now event (audio)

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain was the third presidential candidate to speak at today’s Strong America Now event in Des Moines.  He gave by far the shortest speech of the three.

AUDIO: 8 min

“We are in a national spending nightmare and we need a goal to balance the federal budget,” Cain said to open his remarks.  “It’s not going to get done by the committee of 535.  The only way it’s going to get done is with the right leadership in the White House where leadership is supposed to begin.”

Cain told the crowd it was time to  “get serious” about entitlement spending.  He talked about Social Security reform and his desire to transition to a “optional personal retirement accounts.”   Cain said the U.S. could “make that same conversion” with the “right leadership in the White House.”

Cain said he’d call upon “We, the people,” to get Washington to “see the light” about spending reform. “We’ve got to get away from being scared because it’s politically difficult and do what’s right for the United States of America,” Cain said.

During the Q&A session, the questioner (Hugh Hewitt) began by saying he was one of those who had questioned whether Cain should be on the stage for the New Hampshire debate. “You’re making me look pretty stupid, Herman,” Hewitt joked.

Hewitt next asked Cain about his comments on the Second Amendment, for which he’s caught some heat. Cain said he would support states deciding to do background checks for gun purchases, “but I did not in any way mean states have the right to restrict access to owning fire arms, so that was the misunderstanding.”

The two joked about their Q&A session being the only thing standing between the audience and lunch. ”They are not serving Godfather’s Pizza, unfortunately,” Cain joked. “I’ve got bad news for ya.”